近六百年来长江三角洲地区城镇空间与城镇体系格局演变分析     

覃丽君  金晓斌  蒋宇超  薛樵风  成一农  龙瀛  杨绪红  周寅康 《地理研究》2019,38(5):1045-1062

基于历史文献、古地图和现代遥感数据,引入历史学古代城镇形态复原方法,复原（提取）明代以来长江三角洲地区113座城镇7个时间断面（1461年、1820年、1930年、1970年、1980年、2000年和2010年）下的城镇边界,采用扩张速率、扩张效率、首位度指数和位序-规模法则,分析了近六百年来区域城镇空间与城镇体系等级规模演变格局。取得以下研究结果：\mathrm{①}研究时段内,区内城镇用地总规模由205.98 km²增加到6442.19 km²,扩大了31.27倍;城镇扩张经历了萌芽阶段（明清时期）、起步阶段（民国至改革开放前夕）、成长阶段（改革开放至2000年）和加速阶段（2000—2010年）,城镇扩张速率不断加快,但扩张效率有待提升;\mathrm{②}在城镇等级规模空间格局上,明清时期南京与苏州为区内的一级城镇,民国后,上海逐渐取代其地位,从五级城镇发展成为区域核心城镇,四级以上城镇主要集中在长江干流沿岸和太湖流域,五级以下城镇大多集中在安徽;城镇体系呈首位型分布,城镇首位度较高,且改革开放后的城镇首位度较明清与民国时期要高,不同等级规模城镇之间差距扩大,大城镇优势较强。近30年,长江沿岸城镇发展加速,苏锡常都市圈、南京都市圈等逐渐形成并快速发展。  相似文献   

北大西洋地区气候准20年周期的观测和模拟分析          下载免费PDF全文

傅心雨  陶丽 《大气科学学报》2021,44(6):938-944

北大西洋地区除了存在约70 a周期的AMO（Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation,北大西洋年代际振荡）之外,历史长期气候记录中英格兰温度（Central England Temperature,CET）与格陵兰冰芯净雪累计率还存在显著的20 a周期波动。本研究利用CCSM4（Community Climate System Model version 4）耦合模式工业革命前控制试验（piControl）结果中的海表面温度（Sea Surface Temperature,SST）,通过10～50 a带通滤波与扩展经验正交函数（Extended Empirical Orthogonal Function,EEOF）分解,得到在北大西洋副极地海区存在准20 a振荡的逆时针旋转模态。此周期与其临近地区的CET、格陵兰冰芯净雪累计率的准20 a振荡周期相吻合,说明这种北大西洋副极地海区准20 a振荡的海洋模态与其临近地区的大气准20 a振荡之间可能存在相应的联系。进一步利用CAM4（the Community Atmosphere Model version4）大气模式,以北大西洋副极地海区准20 a振荡SST旋转模态为强迫场进行敏感性试验,进一步验证了这种联系。  相似文献   

改良黄土强度特性与工程处置试验研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

李志清  余文龙  范林峰  付乐  胡瑞林  林杜军  王艳萍 《工程地质学报》2011,19(1):116-121

本文针对山西朔州典型黄土,利用素黄土与石灰粉煤灰、石灰水泥、水泥粉煤灰三种改良黄土,进行了击实特性、抗剪强度特性及崩解特性试验研究,提出了黄土改良的最佳方案,并采用该方案对山西某煤矿电梯井填方段进行了数值模拟分析,验证了石灰粉煤灰改良黄土工程应用的可行性。试验结果表明:粉煤灰与黄土形成致密的混合结构,石灰的掺入,激活了粉煤灰的活性,发生了一系列的水化反应,使改良黄土的强度大大提高,改良黄土在物理力学性质方面有明显改善。  相似文献   

Comparison of Simulated and Reconstructed Temperature in China during the past 2000 years     

Wang Xiaoqing  Liu Jian  Wang Zhiyuan 《地球科学进展》2015,30(12):1318

Studying climate changes over the past 2 000 years has important scientific significance in exploring climate variability on decadal to centennial timescales, assessing the natural and anthropogenic contribution to the climate warming, and understanding the effects of human activities in the past and future climate changes. Due to the scarcity of observation and uncertainty of reconstruction in this period, climate model is developed as a useful tool for studying paleoclimate.The Community Earth System Model (CESM) is one of the state-of-the-art climate models, but its performance in simulating the temperature in China has not been examined.The temperature datasets of observation/reanalysis (GHCN_CAMS) and reconstructions during the past 2000 years in China were used to examine the performance of CESM. The comparison between the annual average temperatures of GHCN_CAMS reanalysis and simulation showed that the model well reproduced the spatial distributions and upward trend of the annual average temperature in China, and the comparison with reconstructions in five sub-regions of China indicated that the simulation were in good consistent with the average temperature changes of reconstructionson decadal time scales. On the centennial time scale, the average temperature fluctuations of simulation in the regions of China were in accord with reconstructions generally except for Central East and Tibet.There existed three warm periods of simulated temperature variation in China over the past 2000 years, including 0-540AD, 800-1250AD and 1901-2000AD, and two cold periods involving the 551-721AD and 1400-1850AD, which had some discrepancies with reconstructions. And the discrepancies between simulation and reconstructions might be related to uncertainties of the resolution, external forcing and parameterization of the subgrid-scale process in the model.  相似文献   

剪切速率对结构性吹填软土力学特性影响试验研究     

杨爱武  雷博 《工程地质学报》2015,23(1):7-12

黏土在剪切变形过程中,剪切速率的不同会对其结构破坏产生不同影响,从而影响其力学特性.本文以天津滨海新区吹填软土为研究对象,在对吹填软土关于结构性讨论的基础上,开展了剪切速率对其力学性状影响的三轴试验研究,分析其剪切速率力学效应.试验结果表明:随着剪切速率的提高,在低围压条件下,吹填软土的强度及其结构屈服应力均先减小后增大,存在临界剪切速率,而在高围压条件下,强度及其结构屈服应力则逐渐增大,与剪切速率呈正相关关系,临界剪切速率逐渐消失; 吹填软土的黏聚力在不同围压下随剪切速率提高均呈现减小趋势,内摩擦角在低围压条件下随剪切速率提高呈现增大趋势,在高围压条件下则随剪切速率提高呈现减小趋势; 在剪切过程中,孔隙水压力均随着轴向应变的增大到某一值然后稳定下来,随着围压的进一步加大,孔隙水压力的稳定值会随剪切速率的提高呈减小趋势.  相似文献   

吉林省敦化市乡村人群气候变化感知的偏差及群体分异研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

田青  姚冬萍  苏桂武  刘健  谢今范 《气候变化研究进展》2011,7(3):217-223

通过问卷调查,具体分析了吉林省敦化市乡村人群对气候变化趋势和极端冷暖年的感知偏差及人群分异.发现乡村人群对气候变化趋势的感知与科学事实比较符合,由于对变暖转折年代更敏感,因而对变暖的确认度在一些时段与科学事实在变化程度或幅度上存在比较大的偏差.乡村人群对极端冷暖年不如对趋势感知的准确度高.经验积累影响乡村人群对气候变化...  相似文献   

加拿大老年人口状况及发展态势   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

张桂霞 《热带地理》2011,31(5)

采用加拿大2006年人口普查资料,结合旅居加国的经历,统计分析了加拿大老年人口的发展趋势和现状.分析显示:加拿大老年人口前期(1921-1981年)增长慢,后期(2001—2006年)增长快,老年人口数量中,女性比男性多,寿命比男性长,老年人口分布集中在安大略省;人口老龄化发展过程给社会带来了一系列问题,老龄化使政府和企业的养老负担日益加重,瞻养率大幅度下降,政府每年支付养老金及医疗费用的数量增加,导致劳动力市场压力增大,劳动资源不足.文中还介绍了人口专家为解决加国人口老龄化问题所提出的建议和对策,以及加拿大政府在老年人口养老与医疗方面的一些做法,认为值得中国借鉴.  相似文献   

过去百年青海和西藏耕地空间格局重建及其时空变化   总被引：7，自引：1，他引：6  

李士成  张镱锂  何凡能 《地理科学进展》2015,34(2)

网格化的历史土地利用/覆被数据集,可为历史气候变化和碳循环研究提供基础数据。本文估算了1910年,并订正了1950-2000年青海和西藏的省域耕地面积数据;基于现代耕地空间格局,量化了海拔高程和地面坡度与耕地空间分布之间的关系,构建了历史耕地网格化重建模型。将1910、1960、1980和2000年的省域耕地面积数据带入网格化重建模型,得到了4个时间断面的耕地空间格局。结果表明:青藏两省耕地面积1910-1950年稳定,1950-1980年快速增加,1980-2000年基本稳定,略有降低。就空间格局而言,1960-1980年,河湟谷地和"一江两河"地区土地开垦范围的扩张和垦殖强度的增长在过去百年最为明显。模型检验表明,模型重建的2000年耕地空间格局与2000年遥感数据相关系数达0.92。  相似文献   

Precipitation cycles in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River （1736-2000）   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

郝志新  郑景云  葛全胜 《地理学报(英文版)》2008,18(1):17-25

Based on the long-term precipitation series with annual time resolution in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River and its four sub-regions during 1736-2000 reconstructed from the rainfall and snowfall archives of the Qing Dynasty, the precipitation cycles are analyzed by wavelet analysis and the possible climate forcings, which drive the precipitation changes, are explored. The results show that： the precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River has inter-annual and inter-decadal oscillations like 2-4a, quasi-22a and 70-80a. The 2-4a cycle is linked with El Nino events, and the precipitation is lower than normal year in the occurrence of the El Nino year or the next year; for the quasi-22a and the 70-80a cycles, Wolf Sun Spot Numbers and Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO） coincide with the two cycle signals. However, on a 70-80a time scale, the coincidence between solar activity and precipitation is identified before 1830, and strong （weak） solar activity is generally correlated to the dry （wet） periods; after 1830, the solar activity changes to 80-100a quasi-century long oscillation, and the adjusting action to the precipitation is becoming weaker and weaker; the coincidence between PDO and precipitation is shown in the whole time series. Moreover, in recent 100 years, PDO is becoming a pace-maker of the precipitation on the 70-80a time scale.  相似文献   

300年来中国森林的变化   总被引：5，自引：2，他引：3  

何凡能  葛全胜  戴君虎  饶玉娟 《地理学报(英文版)》2008,18(1):59-72

Based on historical documents, modern survey and statistics, as well as the result of predecessor studies, the trend and main process of forest dynamics are recognized. The forest area and forest coverage rates for each province of China from 1700 to 1949 are estimated backward by every 50 years. Linking the result with modern National Forest Inventory data, the spatial-temporal dynamics of Chinese forest in recent 300 years （AD 1700-1998） is quantitatively analyzed. The study shows that in recent 300 years, the forest area in current territory of China has declined by 0.95×10^8 hm^2 （or 9.2% of the coverage rate） in total, with a trend of decrease and recovery. Before the 1960s, there was a trend of accelerated descending. The forest area was reduced by 1.66×10^8 hm^2 （or 17% of the coverage rate） in 260 years. While after the 1960s, there has been a rapid increase. The forest area increased by 0.7×10^8 hm^2 （or 8% of the coverage rate） in 40 years. The study also shows that there is a significant spatial difference in the dynamics of forest. The amplitudes of increasing and decreasing in western China are both smaller than the ones in eastern China. During the rapid declining period from 1700 to 1949, the most serious decrease appeared in the Northeast, the Southwest and the Southeast, where the coverage rate in most provinces dropped over 20%. In Heilongjiang Province, the coverage rate dropped by 50%. In Jilin Province, it dropped by 36%. In Sichuan Province and Chongqing Municipality, it dropped by 42%. In Yunnan Province, it dropped by 35%. During the recovery period 1949-1998, the western provinces, municipality and autonomous regions, including Ningxia, Gansu, Inner Mongolia, Sichuan-Chongqing, Yunnan, Tibet, Xinjiang and Qinghai, etc, the increase rates are all below 5%, while the eastern provinces, municipality and autonomous regions （except Heilongjiang, Hubei, Jiangsu-Shanghai） have achieved an increase over 5%, among which the Guangdong-Hainan, Guangxi, Anhui, Beijing-Tianjin-H  相似文献